Futuring is the field of
using a systematic process for thinking about, picturing possible outcomes, and
planning for the future. Futurists are people who actively view the present
world as a window on possible future outcomes. They watch trends and try to
envision what might happen. Futuring has its roots in the post–World War II
era. Scientists, politicians, and academics began to consider ways of
anticipating the future. This initial consideration led to a more cohesive and
developed field of futuring in the mid-1960s. An association, the World Future
Society, exists to provide a forum for further discussion and analysis.
Explorers often found
themselves in situations where they had no idea what the future held for them.
What was around the next bend; over the next mountain range; across the next
river was a complete unknown. They were forced to make decisions that were
literally life and death. Futurists can look to these explorers for guidance.
Edward Cornish, former president of the World Future Society, highlights seven
lessons that can be learned: (1) prepare for what you will face in the future;
(2) anticipate future needs; (3) use poor information when necessary; (4)
expect the unexpected; (5) think long term as well as short term; (6) dream
productively; and (7) learn from your predecessors.
A major instigator of
forecasting the future is the incredible rate of change that is taking place.
Technologically, culturally, and environmentally change is all around and
moving at a very fast rate. Mankind has lived through the Agricultural,
Industrial and Cybernetic Revolutions. There will undoubtedly be another if not
several more revolutions that will affect the planet. Futuring delves into this
process of revolutions to attempt to forecast what might be the next one.
Cornish discusses six current "super trends" that are dramatically
affecting the present and the future.
Technological Progress. Improvements
in computers, medicine, transportation, communications, and other industries
all affected by technology.
Economic
Growth. Impacted by technological progress the improvement of people's economic
well-being continues to steadily improve over time.
Improving
Health. Impacted by the aforementioned super trends—technological progress and
economic growth—the average lifespan and overall health of
the average person continues to improve over time.
Increased
Mobility. Technological progress, economic growth, and improving health combine
to improve mobility of people and products, creating both advantages and
disadvantages as the world shrinks.
Environmental
Decline. The scope of this progress and mobility and increasing population is
impacting the earth with severe environmental issues that do not have a
short-term solution.
Increasing
De-culturation. Mankind has had a wide variety of cultures and races; due to
some of the above trends, these cultures are being erased by poverty,
migration, and tourism.
FORCES THAT AFFECT THE FUTURE
Futurists must account
for several powerful forces that impact future events and trends. These forces
are systems, chance, and chaos.
SYSTEMS.
Systems exist in most
every setting. Relationships between people, the human body, and cities sewage
and transportation services are all examples of systems. Actions that impact
one part of the system can inevitably affect other parts of the system.
CHANCE.
Chance events occur
continuously. These events can shape future outcomes. Small actions or details
can have a profound effect that can cause major worldwide events.
CHAOS.
Chaos is the idea that
minor differences in something can have a profound effect on other things and
then inevitably on the future. This means that there is always a wide array of
possible outcomes; only extremely minor differences separate these possible
outcomes from actually happening.
These three forces:
systems, chance, and chaos, must all be considered at some level if a person is
to try and forecast the future.
FUTURING METHODS
Futuring is accomplished
by rather normal means of forecasting. There are four methods used in futuring
to determine possible outcomes. These methods are: polling, gaming, modeling
and simulation, and visioning.
POLLING.
Polling is a method that
involves consulting with others, preferably experts, who are knowledgeable on
the topic in question. It consists of a series of questions to elicit responses
that are then collated to determine what the
overall perception of the group is. This is best performed when the
participants cannot interact with each other and bias their answers.
GAMING.
Another method of
forecasting that is used by researchers, and especially by the government, is
gaming. Gaming is a method of possible events where participants are placed in
mock situations and are expected to make actual decisions based on the
information and actions that are happening around them. Gaming possible events
and situations with computer simulations is becoming more popular. Gaming
assists with understanding how people will react in their roles and what
possible outcomes of a given situation might be.
MODELING
AND SIMULATION.
Modeling is a method
used in forecasting future outcomes. Modeling generally involves computer
processing of data to provide possible outcomes. Data for the relevant
variables is entered into the computer, with the model then run repetitively
with minor variations to observe potential outcomes.
VISIONING.
Many futurists use the
visioning method to not only forecast, but to encourage potential futures.
Visioning involves discussing and creating preferred futures. The result of
visioning is a plan of action for following through with the ideas that are
generated.
The different methods of
forecasting the future can be used in a variety of settings depending on the
people and information available. Other methods that are also used in futuring
are:
Scanning —systematic survey of
information sources focusing on trends
Trend
Analysis —in-depth look at a specific trend and all
of its related issues and elements
Trend
Monitoring —continuous monitoring of important trends
Trend
Projection —using numerical data to project where a
trend should eventually end up
Brainstorming —generating new ideas by
small group interaction
Historical
Analysis —using historical events to anticipate
current developments
Deja
Viewing —reviewing the past to determine if
anything similar has happened
Bringing
the Future to the Present —looking ahead to the
future and painting a picture of what you want to happen
Experience
Hitchhiking —gaining experience by 'hitchhiking' with people who have gone through
similar experiences already.
SCENARIOS
Scenarios are recognized
as an effective method for forecasting the future. Scenarios are beneficial in
forecasting because they deal with the uncertainty of a situation. Scenario
creation focuses on identifying what might happen. This allows for analyzing the problem and
determining what the consequences might be in light of the information
available and in light of our own reactions to possible events. Futurists often
use five different variations of scenario building: (1) Continuation —things will continue
much as they are now; (2) Optimistic —things will get
considerably better; (3) Pessimistic —things will get
considerably worse; (4) Disaster —things will go terribly
wrong; and (5) Miracle —things going stunningly
well.
Each scenario is then
given a percentage of probability on the likelihood that it will happen. Cost
for each scenario in effort or outcome is important to consider. Scenarios
assist in clarifying thinking about issues so that better decisions can be
made.
WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY PREDICTIONS
The World Future Society
brings together experts from around the world to report on future directions in
their areas of expertise. The publication Futurist contained a two-part
special report in 2005 on Trends Shaping the Future. A sampling of the trends
is provided here:
- The world's population will
grow to 9.2 billion by 2050. Implications for this trend include: (1) the
need for global agriculture to produce more food than ever before; (2)
migration will continue from the Southern hemisphere to the Northern
hemisphere; and (3) in the developed countries potential retirees will
need to continue working for a longer period of time.
- The global economy is growing
more integrated. Implications for this trend include: (1) greater niche
market competition as small companies have a greater reach using the
Internet; and (2) demand for foreign language training may increase as
workers are utilized across the globe.
- Consumerism is still growing rapidly.
Implications for this trend include: (1) the increase in marketing and
development of warehouse stores in Europe and Japan; (2) service and
salesmanship will become a more decisive factor for purchases as price
becomes more of a commodity; and (3) brands will continue to be important.
- Privacy is dying in many lands.
Implications of this include: (1) the extension of terrorism-related
surveillance measures; (2) an increase in privacy-related lawsuits in the
U.S. as the struggle between security and privacy continues; and (3) encryption will become more widespread at
the corporate and personal level.
- Water shortages will be a
continuing problem for much of the world. Implications of this include:
(1) the growth of famine and desertification in
developing areas of the world; (2) water wars are possible in certain
areas of the world; and (3) water impurities will become a growing
problem.
- Advances in transportation
technology will make travel and shipping faster, cheaper, and safer, by
land, sea, and air. Implications of this include: (1) the further
development of alternative-fuel vehicles; and (2) smart cars and other
transportation developments will be used as congestion increases in urban
areas.
- Consumers increasingly demand
social responsibility from companies and each other. Implications of this
trend will include: (1) increasing pressure for companies to adopt
environmentally friendly practices; and (2) the Internet will help
activists reach out to police and protest against companies' activities in
other countries.
- Generation X and the "Millennials"—those
born after 1981—will have major effects in the future. Implications will
include: (1) the need for employers to adjust compensation and motivation
for these groups; and (2) these groups will continue to expect and demand
more advanced telecommunications and Internet services.
- Time is becoming the world's
most precious commodity. Implications may include: (1) the need for
companies to help employees balance their personal and work lives; and (2)
Internet shopping will increase as the time for shopping at malls and
stores will decrease.
Futurists are aware that
random events can happen that can change the best forecasting; therefore, these
techniques of trend-watching, reviewing past events, gaming, scenarios, and
others all must allow for a certain amount of flexibility. Forces acting on any
possible future include systems, chance, and chaos, as well as individual
choice.
Developing the skills
and techniques to see into the future is neither magic nor unattainable.
Futurists are leading the way to envisioning possible futures. They believe
that developing effective foresight can lead to better decision-making, greater
discoveries, and an improved future. Futurists challenge the concept of
fatalism—that the future is coming and there is nothing we can do about it.
Using these forecasting methods individuals can change and guide their future.
They are in a position to positively influence their future, which can
potentially make things better for others and possibly change the world.
SEE ALSO: Brainstorming ; Forecasting ; Gap Analysis ; Strategic Planning Tools ; Strategy Implementation ; Strategy in the Global
Environment ; Technological Forecasting ; Technology Management ; Technology Transfer
Hal P. Kirkwood , Jr.
FURTHER READING:
"The Art of
Foresight." Futurist 38, no. 3 (2004): 31–37.
Cetron, M.J.
"Trends Now Shaping the Future." Futurist 39, no. 2 (2005): 27–42.
——. "Trends Now
Shaping the Future." Futurist 39, no. 3 (2005): 37–50.
Cornish, E. Futuring: The
Exploration of the Future. Bethesda, MD: World
Future Society, 2004.
May, T.A. "Tricks
of the Futuring Trade." Computerworld 38, no. 12 (2004): 23.
Taylor, C. "Looking
Ahead in a Dangerous World." Time, 11 October 2004, 60–61.
