WorldWorldMiddle East5 min readFour ways a hasty Trump exit from the Iran war may not end the conflictByAbbas Al LawatiUpdated 11 hr agoUS President Donald Trump speaks during the signing ceremony for an executive order on mail ballots, in the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday.US President Donald Trump speaks ...FollowUS President Donald Trump is signaling that he may walk away from the Iran war, unilaterally stepping out without toppling the Islamic Republic, opening the Strait of Hormuz or securing a deal with Tehran to halt attacks on the United States and its allies.“Tonight, I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion,” Trump said in a primetime address to the nation on Wednesday, referring to damage inflicted on the country’s missile program, navy, army, and proxies.The president boasted that the “hard part is done” and is optimistic that such a move would ease the economic pain that Iran’s attacks on Persian Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure have caused for consumers in the US and around the world.But Iran has insisted that it will choose when the war ends and is showing no signs of giving up until the US agrees to its demands. Tehran rejects “deadlines” and is prepared to fight on for “at least six months,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday.Here’s why the hard part of the war may be far from over:An emboldened Iranian regime in possession of nuclear materialTrump declared on Tuesday that his “one goal” of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon “has been attained.” The US has bombed several Iranian nuclear facilities, but more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that could be used to make a bomb are unaccounted for.A member of the Iranian security forces stands guard next to a banner honouring Iran's slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Tuesday.A member of the Iranian security forces stands guard next to a banner honouring Iran's slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Tuesday. Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty ImagesDespite Trump’s assertion that the “very different people” who now rule Iran are “much more reasonable,” experts have reason to believe that Iran is now more likely to seek a bomb than it had been before the war. The previous supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who had issued a fatwa banning its development, was killed by Israel. Now hardliners in the country are demanding weaponization of the nuclear program, arguing that Iran’s status as a nuclear threshold state wasn’t an effective deterrent to prevent attacks.Related articleAn Iranian woman walks past a view of Tehran's research reactor in Tehran, Iran, on February 26, 2026, the final day of Iran-U.S. talks that are currently held in the city of Geneva.Cornered and wounded, will Iran now go for a nuclear bomb?5 min readHaving failed to topple the Islamic Republic, the US would be leaving in place a significantly more hardline regime where civilian leaders are being undermined by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Guards are likely to make Iran even more reclusive and significantly heighten the crackdown on liberties and dissent.Global economic chaos continues as Hormuz is weaponizedAn early exit from the Iran war would effectively amount to an acknowledgement of Washington’s failure to open the Strait of Hormuz through diplomatic or military pressure. Trump has said the strait would “just open up naturally” and gas prices will “come tumbling down” after a US exit, arguing that because the US imports relatively little energy from the Middle East, securing the waterway should fall on those who do.A bird flies near the Jag Vasant vessel transferring LPG at a port after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in Mumbai, India, on Wednesday.A bird flies near the Jag Vasant vessel transferring LPG at a port after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in Mumbai, India, on Wednesday. Francis Mascarenhas/ReutersBut markets don’t work that way. The price Americans pay at the pump is set on the global market, regardless of where the fuel is sourced, and a supply shock – if left unaddressed – would still push prices higher in the US.Exiting without an agreement to reopen the strait would effectively hand Iran a win in imposing its sovereignty over the waterway, giving it immense leverage over the world economy and far more power than it previously exercised. Iran’s vetting of ships that pass through the strait and its reported imposition of tolls of up to $2 million per ship, risks becoming the new norm – creating a fresh revenue stream as Tehran wages a war it has shown little intention of ending.Related articleA bulk carrier sits anchored at a port in Oman earlier this month.Iran has a new demand to end the war – and it could bring in billions6 min readThe consolidation of Iran’s control could, paradoxically, allow more oil to flow if more states opt to seek permission from Tehran to transit the strait, offering some relief to rising prices. But it would set a precedent with little basis in international law and raise serious questions about the effectiveness of the rules-based maritime order. And experts say that even if oil supply returns, it could take weeks – even months – for lower prices to filter through at the pump.Gulf security left unaddressedIran has broken two taboos with its Gulf Arab neighbors during the war: it launched direct attacks against their territory for the first time, punishing them for the actions of their American ally, and it effectively closed Hormuz to their oil shipments, depriving them of an economic lifeline.Both are seen by Gulf states as existential, and a quick exit from the war without an agreement could leave them exposed to repeat attacks for years to come. It would also hand Iran significant leverage over them, allowing it to dictate the terms under which they can export oil, while maintaining the threat of further missile strikes on their cities if they refuse to comply with an increasingly belligerent Islamic Republic.Related articleResidents look on as flames and smoke rise from an oil storage facility that was struck in Tehran, Iran, on Saturday.Why Trump’s Gulf allies are resisting pressure to join the Iran war6 min readIt is also likely to raise questions about the implicit bargain that ties Gulf investment and strategic alignment to continued US protection. When Trump visited Qatar as part of his first scheduled trip in his second term, he declared that “we’re going to protect you,” as Gulf states pledged trillions of dollars in US investments. A hasty exit that leaves Gulf states to fend for themselves would likely be seen as a betrayal of that pledge.Israel may continue to strike Iran and LebanonWhere a hasty US exit from the war leaves Israel could shape the trajectory of the war. In both Lebanon and Gaza, Israel continued to strike adversaries after agreeing to ceasefires, citing violations from the other side. It signaled early in the latest Iran conflict that it was seeking to fundamentally weaken – if not topple – the Iranian regime, and an American exit with the Islamic Republic intact could leave it with what it sees as unfinished business.Smoke and debris fly around at the site of an Israeli strike that targeted a building adjacent to the highway that leads to Beirut's international airport on Tuesday.Smoke and debris fly around at the site of an Israeli strike that targeted a building adjacent to the highway that leads to Beirut's international airport on Tuesday. Fadel Itani/AFP/Getty ImagesBut Washington has previously shown it can restrain Israel when it chooses to. During the last Israel-Iran war in June 2025, when Trump moved to end the conflict, he said he forced Israel to call back jets that were already enroute to strike Iran.And even if Israel halts its strikes on Iran, there’s no guarantee Tehran will reciprocate. Having been targeted by Israel twice in the span of a year, Iran is likely to seek assurances that it will not be attacked again, something that is unlikely to materialize without a formal, negotiated end to the war.Iran has also repeatedly insisted on a comprehensive agreement that would bring an end to fighting in Lebanon. A US exit is unlikely to resolve that front. Israel has intensified its campaign there following Hezbollah strikes in support of Iran, and plans to flatten and hold swathes of the south of the country until it judges the Hezbollah threat is eliminated.FollowUp nextTrump is battering Iran but may leave it with an upper hand4 min readTrump officials acknowledge they can’t promise to reopen Strait of Hormuz before ending Iran war6 min readCan Donald Trump singlehandedly withdraw the US from NATO?4 min readThe Trump team’s ever-changing list of 4 goals in Iran5 min readMost popularTrump fires Pam Bondi as attorney generalJohn Roberts told Donald Trump exactly what he thinksWhy Trump might regret his historic visit to the Supreme CourtSearch CNN...My AccountSettingsNewslettersSign outListenWatchUSWorldPoliticsBusinessMarketsHealthCNN UnderscoredEntertainmentTechStyleTravelSportsScienceClimateWeatherUkraine-Russia WarIsrael-Hamas WarWatchListenGamesAbout CNNWorldFollow CNNDownload the CNN appTerms of UsePrivacy PolicyManage CookiesAd ChoicesAccessibility & CCAboutSubscribeNewslettersTranscriptsHelp Center© 2026 Cable News Network. 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