Ex-UK foreign chief predicts quick end to Russia-Ukraine war if Trump wins
In an interview with Al Jazeera, David Owen says that if elected, US presidential candidate Donald Trump would likely work to stop the war, which he predicts will end with Russia taking some of Ukraine’s lands.
London, United Kingdom – David Owen often describes the war in Ukraine as Russia’s “second invasion”, as a constant reminder of the 2014 Crimean conflict.
A former British foreign secretary in the late 1970s, an MP for 26 years under Labour, an ex-member of the House of Lords and a European Union peace negotiator in the former Yugoslavia, Owen updated his latest book – Riddle, Mystery, and Enigma: Two Hundred Years of British-Russian Relations, published October 2021 – after Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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Al Jazeera spoke to Owen, 86, about Russia and Ukraine, Moscow’s terminal relationship with the UK and why he thinks the United States presidential election in November will determine what comes next.
Al Jazeera: After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, you signed a letter published in the Financial Times that called for a new NATO treaty with Russia that “engenders no institutional hostility”. Almost 1,000 days into the war, NATO is ever closer to Russia and President Vladimir Putin is warning of direct conflict with the military alliance. Do you stand by the letter now?
David Owen: Well, I think relations have got seriously worse, and I regret that.
I don’t myself think it will be possible to move back into a productive sort of dialogue that we had in the [former Russian President Boris] Yeltsin years until the issue of the Ukraine war is over. Now, that may be on the horizon. I think it does depend a lot on who wins the presidential election in the United States. But if [Republican candidate and former US President Donald] Trump was to come back, there’s very little doubt he would, as he has frequently said, try to settle the Ukraine war and improve relations, personal relations with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.
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Al Jazeera: Ukraine wants to use Western-made long-range missiles to strike deep within Russia. Should the US grant Ukraine’s wish?
Owen: We are in the hands of [US] President [Joe] Biden. He is still in charge of American policy and has strong feelings on it. It is clear that Biden is extremely reluctant in the present circumstances of NATO’s involvement with Ukraine to increase the tension.
Al Jazeera: At what point was it clear to you that UK-Russia relations had reached the lowest level since the Cold War?
Owen: I think it was the second invasion of Ukraine. After the first invasion [in 2014], it was reasonable to hope that Russia would see that this was not acceptable. Perhaps we didn’t send a firm enough message. The negotiations were largely conducted between the then-German Chancellor [Angela] Merkel and the French. The British were not primarily engaged in that dialogue.
Maybe Putin underestimated how the NATO countries would respond to an invasion of Ukraine.
Al Jazeera: On the flip side of that, when were relations strong and advantageous for both nations? In your book, you’ve written about the post-Soviet Yeltsin era…
Owen: It was very positive in the Yeltsin era. Things were dramatically transformed. It was Yeltsin who decided that it was better to have a smaller Russia and try and make it strong economically and more liberal. And he encouraged Ukraine and Belarus to separate out.
None of us really thought that Russia would move, as I would call it, backwards, away from the Yeltsin era as quickly as it did. I don’t think we did anywhere near enough financially and in other ways to help Russia during the Yeltsin period.
I was in business in Russia. I was chairman of Yukos International, a large oil company.
[Editor’s note: Owen has since ended business ties with Russia.]
We were trying very hard but quite a lot of loose money came in from financial markets in Europe and America, which was very short-term money that was not there to smooth the transition from communist economics to Western free markets. We’re not totally free from criticism.
We were unimaginative, ungenerous and, really, sent some pretty bad financial opportunists into Russia who didn’t have the best interests of Russia at heart, weren’t the sort of people who could have helped to create a Russian economy slowly and steadily, which would find it much easier to live with the Western economies of Europe and America.
Al Jazeera: Since 2022, pro-Kremlin figures have threatened Britain, saying Russian nuclear warheads could sink “the tiny island”. Could Russia launch an attack on the UK?
Owen: No war that Russia could embark on against Britain would be purely a British-Russian war. It would involve NATO. It would involve the United States right from the time the first rocket was sent towards Britain and would involve all European NATO countries.
It’s an illusion if they think they can have this separate battle with us. I’m surprised that people are sensible, as [Russia’s] former President [Dmitry] Medvedev believes that he can just waft into tactical nuclear weapons discourse.
We need to remember when Putin went to China and talked to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping about his intentions over Ukraine.
Xi said China would not support the use of nuclear weapons in reclaiming Ukraine. That position has not changed and I think it’s extremely important that it does not change.
Al Jazeera: Will the UK’s new Labour leader Keir Starmer be as strong of an ally to Ukraine as the ex-Conservative premier Boris Johnson?
Owen: They’re very different personalities. Boris Johnson is more of a gut politician. When Ukraine was attacked, he responded quickly and courageously. But I don’t think that there’s any tangible difference. A difference of style, of course.
Al Jazeera: In recent months, several peace plans have been touted, including Ukraine’s. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his “victory plan” includes NATO membership. Is that a realistic position?
Owen: Ukraine is not a member of NATO and that is an issue for the future. I suspect it will be hotly contested by Russia. We shouldn’t put ourselves into a situation of making that a sine qua non.
NATO membership has been not terribly well handled on the borders of Russia. We never faced up to how difficult that was for Russia itself.
We made some mistakes in that area. I don’t think we’ll make them [again], the same ones.
It might be in Russia’s interest to let Ukraine have the membership of NATO, as long as they got the borders in negotiation. There’s a trade-off there which might come up in the negotiations.
I’m in favour of Ukraine handling negotiations and not NATO countries. And I think we are very close to that now. It’s going to be resolved to a great extent by the result of the American presidential election.
If Trump was to win, there is no doubt that it would be a fairly quick negotiation between Ukraine and Russia, and it would come up with a solution. Even if Trump doesn’t win, I think it’s quite possible that President Kamala [Harris] would be open to a negotiation. But again, I don’t think she would want to put America directly in line, whereas Trump said he clearly would.
Al Jazeera: You mentioned mistakes made by Western powers and suggested NATO has not always considered Russia in its calculations. Can you expand on that?
Owen: In the euphoria of the Berlin Wall falling down [in 1989], some people forgot that we did actually have some quite wise politicians around, one of which was [George HW] Bush, [US] President Bush.
He was conscious of the fact that pushing NATO right up against the boundary of Russia was to be avoided, if possible. Even [ex-US President Bill] Clinton was aware of this. British people, too.
Former USSR President Mikhail] Gorbachev suddenly was taken over by Yeltsin and it all moved a little too fast at that stage. And some of the caution of how quickly NATO could enlarge got swept away. There was an insensitivity about the way Russia has seen itself over the centuries.
Al Jazeera: Having studied Putin more closely in the last couple of years, what can we expect of him in any negotiations to end the war?
Owen: President Putin is to be judged on how he handles Russia. This man faced a rebellion of Russian troops led by [Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin]. They were on the march towards Moscow, a breakaway movement. He handled that episode extraordinarily skilfully. He didn’t do anything. He waited… he got exactly what he wanted. It took him probably seven or eight months. [Editor’s note: Prigozhin died in a plane crash two months after the failed coup attempt].
This [Putin] is a cautious man. I therefore think we should show respect for him.
He is leader of Russia and it’s not under challenge at the moment. He’s quite likely to be there for another five, 10, 15 years, so we should treat him with respect in negotiations and I believe we can restore those relations. We’ve made some mistakes. He’s made mistakes, but I don’t believe in this endless war.
They’re going to end up with some territory, which was previously Ukraine.
[Russia has hopefully] learned better ways of dealing with Ukraine and I think they will be able to negotiate a successful boundary between them, and then continue to trade with them.
We almost get away from this belief that the boundaries of the empires of the past have an absolutism about them, that they are crying out for restoration. The history of the world is that boundaries do change. Often difficult, sometimes inflammatory, and we have to be very careful, more careful than we were in the past, about not pushing a NATO boundary too far.
Finland and Sweden are engaged with NATO. These have not been steps that they took [easily] – they were provoked.
Al Jazeera: How do you imagine a world after the Russia-Ukraine war ends? How can Britain and Russia repair their relationship?
Owen: Start visiting each other’s countries. I’m 86 now, but I would like to believe that before I die, I could go back to [Russia] and talk to old friends and critics and engage with them.
The sooner the better. I don’t believe in mucking around once you decide to improve relations and get back into person-to-person relationships.
